Today, we had a discussion on a German Pokemon board about how
strongly luck affects the outcome of a game, generally. One guy said how
he got haxxed on the WiFi ladder multiple times, and he basically just
raged about the game and the great impact of luck.
Of course this topic has been dealt with multiple times in the past, and people will have to deal with it lots of times in the future, but I
wanted to share my basic thoughts and what I told him.
First of all, everybody has accepted that luck plays a factor in this
game as early as he or she has started playing pokemon competitively,
so there shouldn’t be any huge rage about this topic in the first place.
However, the best players have learned to minimize the impacts of luck
or to get the effects of luck in their favor, as can be easily seen by
having a three-time world-champion in Ray Rizzo, something that couldn’t
be achieved if Pokemon was just a luck-based game. This example has
been overused though, and I really wanted to add some new content to it,
so I thought about how to put it in simple words. I came up with one
single goal that is of extreme importance: You need to outdamage your
opponent.
This can be achieved by several ideas: Having attacks hit for super
effective damage is generally a good way to ensure that your opponent’s Pokemon will take a lot from your attacks. While this seems to be
trivial, it is always a good thing to keep in mind to have good
coverage, as even the highest attack stat does not help when the base
power of a move is very low.
Another concept is to outspeed your opponent. This helps to achieve
the main goal- outdamaging them. Going first will have several
advantages. For example, you cannot get flinched by Rock Slide or
Waterfall, nor can a critical hit nullify your move for that turn. Even
if you end up getting critted, you got your move off.
Being faster also puts pressure on the opponent if you are
threatening with super effective attacks, as one wants to keep the opponent's damage to as little as possible. This will result in safety moves, like
switching or protecting, that one can punish with the right prediction.
To come back to the initial topic, which was about the great number
of crits the guy faced, it has to be noted that there might have been a
different amount of attacking moves coming off. For example, if you
switch a lot, this might also mean that your opponent will get off more
attacking moves than you. However, a not very effective critical hit is
generally inferior to a super effective hit.
Therefore, keep in mind that solely “outplaying” is not enough in Pokemon, as you need to “outdamage” your opponent in the first place. 10
turns in which you read what your opponent will do and switch cleverly
may be inferior to one single turn in which heavy damage is dealt!
- Markus
On this subject in particular I also want to give my thoughts. Luck
has always been extremely difficult to understand in Pokemon. Despite
being extremely present, there is consistency among players in winning,
as well as in losing. Certain players I have encountered simply build
teams that always seem to lose to unprecedented amounts of “bad luck”,
while other players never encounter nearly the same quantity or quality.
As Markus already mentioned, I would like to elaborate on outspeeding
and outdamaging opponents.
I have extensive practice playing with a team style known as “Perish
Trap”, in which a Pokemon uses Perish Song while a partner with Shadow
Tag is on the field, preventing the opposing team from subbing out of
Perish Song until the counter hits 0. In theory, Perish Trap seems like
the perfect strategy: it never has to worry about offensive pressure, it
can kill any and every Pokemon or team with good playing, and it has
multiple tricks up its sleeve that can catch opponents off guard.
However, Perish Trap suffers from a fatal flaw. While extremely
successful in theory, and mostly in practice, Perish Trap is an
example of a team that is extremely weak to bad luck. Perish Trap never
uses any moves offensively, and relies on clever prediction, switching,
and team synergy to beat opponents. However, because a Perish Trap team
rarely attacks, it is guaranteed to receive more
attacks than it dishes out. It makes no sense for an opponent facing a
Perish Trap team to do anything other than attack with their strongest
Pokemon twice a turn, because if they do not they are guaranteed to
lose. Because a Perish Trap team ensures that it will take much more
hits than it deals out, it finds itself weakest to Critical Hits,
crucial freezes, flinches, long sleeps, etc, all because in forming a
team that has a rock solid defensive base, cracks appear in the areas
that cannot be accounted for with playing.
Another experience I feel would be beneficial to the discussion is my
result with the 2013 Worlds team I used last year. The team, consisting
of Registeel/Magmar/Gliscor/Latios/Rotom-Wash/Hippowdon, was extremely
defensive in every regard, and had a total of 12 EVs in Attack and Special Attack across the entire team. In theory, it was a team with no
bad matchups. Extreme defensive stats and status accounted for every
bulky offensive team’s threats, and with recovery and passive damage, it
was a force to be reckoned with. However, I encountered the same issue
that Perish Trap suffers from, though I was too stubborn to admit it at
the time. Without any offensive presence on my team, my opponents were
free to attack much more often than I would have liked because there was
no serious threat of retaliation. In receiving many more attacks than I
returned, my team found itself receiving more “bad luck” than my
opponents, yet it was not really luck in the traditional sense as my own
poor decision making in choosing to have a team that did not exert
offensive pressure was not a random occurrence.
Lastly, I would like to touch upon the aspects of luck that I feel
can be controlled regardless of your team. If a player always assumes
that he will end up on the receiving end of bad luck, that player can
adjust accordingly and generally will come out on top. For example, if
your opponent has been asleep for one turn at the hands of your Amoongus
and you have the choice between Rage Powdering to be safe or Sporing
the partner to gain an even greater advantage (assuming that is what
would happen), it is extremely tempting to simply go for the spore and
assume that the sleeping Pokemon will remain at rest and not disrupt
your plans. The safer move, however, is to assume your opponent will wake
up, and by planning accordingly one can minimize the effects of luck
further. Taking unnecessary risks is unhelpful in claiming victory,
which is the reason we do not see Swagger used more often on Physical
Pokemon, except in last resort options.
I have nowhere near a complete understanding of how luck and skill
interact within this game, but I feel that we are beginning to at least
partially understand more than we did before. As more ideas occur to me,
I will of course share them.
-Wolfe
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